IR and Area Studies
Sunday 23 July 2017
Hazrat Ali ibn Abi Talib – a Sunni point of view - Urdu tranliteration
Friday 9 September 2016
Conference abstracts
The paper abstract is highly formulaic. Let’s break it down. It needs to show the following:
1) big picture problem or topic widely debated in your field.
2) gap in the literature on this topic.
3) your project filling the gap.
4) the specific material that you examine in the paper.
5) your original argument.
6) a strong concluding sentence.
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Each of these six elements is mostly likely contained in a single sentence.
Sentence 1: Big picture topic that is being intensively debated in your field/fields, possibly with reference to scholars (“The question of xxx has been widely debated in xxx field, with scholars such as xxx and xx arguing xxx]”).
Sentence 2: Gap in the literature on this topic. This GAP IN KNOWLEDGE is very, very bad, and detrimental to the welfare of all right thinking people. This is the key sentence of the abstract. (“However, these works/articles/arguments/perspectives have not adequately addressed the issue of xxxx.”).
Sentence 3: Your project fills this gap (“My paper addresses the issue of xx with special attention to xxx”).
Sentence 4+ (length here depends on your total word allowance, and more sentences may be possible): The specific material that you are examining–your data, your texts, etc. ( “Specifically, in my project, I will be looking at xxx and xxx, in order to show xxxx. I will discuss xx and xx, and juxtapose them against xx and xx, in order to reveal the previously misunderstood connections between xx and xx.”)
Sentence 5: Your main argument and contribution, concisely and clearly stated. (“I argue that…”)
Sentence 6: Strong Conclusion! (“In conclusion, this project, by closely examining xxxxx, sheds new light on the neglected/little recognized/rarely acknowledged issue of xxxxx. “).
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Start by writing out your own version of the sentences above, succinctly if you can, but without stressing about your word limit too much.
Once that is done, edit to your word count.
One of the key points of the paper abstract is that it is very short, and every word must count. No fluff, no filler, no blather.
Remove wordy phrases like, “it can be argued that,” “Is is commonly acknowledged that,” “I wish to propose the argument that”—these are all empty filler.Work in short, declarative sentences.
If you are wondering—how do I make an argument when I haven’t written the paper yet? Well–that’s the challenge. Come up with a plausible, reasonable argument for the purposes of the abstract. If you end up writing something different in the actual paper itself, that’s ok!
Make sure that your final product shows your:
1) big picture
2) gap in the literature
3) your project filling the gap
4) the specific material that you examine in the paper.
5) your argument.
6) A strong conclusion.
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For your reference, here are two abstracts that demonstrate how the principles above work. Each has parts missing, as noted. Inclusion would have strengthened the abstract:
1. Access to marriage or marriage-like institutions, and the recognition of lesbian and gay familial lives more generally, has become central to lesbian and gay equality struggles in recent years [Sentence 1–Big problem]. [Sentence 2–Gap in literature MISSING here]. This paper considers what utopian fiction has to offer by way of alternatives to this drive for ever more regulation of the family [Sentence 3–Her project fills the gap]. Through analysis of Marge Piercy’s classic feminist novel, Woman on the Edge of Time, and Thomas Bezucha’s award-winning gay film, Big Eden, alternative ways of conceptualizing the place of law in lesbian and gay familial lives are considered and explored [Sentence 4–Her specific material in the paper]. Looking to utopia as a method for rethinking the place of law in society offers rich new perspectives on the issue of lesbian and gay familial recognition [Sentence 5–Her argument, weak]. I argue that utopian fiction signals that the time is now ripe for a radical reevaluation of how we recognize and regulate not only same-sex relationships but all family forms [Sentence 6– a strong conclusion.].
[Imagining a Different World: Reconsidering the Regulation of Family Lives. Rosie Harding. Law and Literature. Vol. 22, No. 3 (Fall 2010) (pp. 440-462)]
2. History, it seems, has to attain a degree of scientificity, resident in the truth-value of its narrative, before it can be called history, as distinguished from the purely literary or political [Sentence 1–Big problem]. Invoking the work of Jacques Rancière and Hayden White, this essay investigates the manner in which history becomes a science through a detour that gives speech a regime of truth [Sentence 2–Literature, no gap mentioned]. It does this by exploring the nineteenth-century relationship of history to poetry and to truth in the context of the emerging discipline of history in Bengal [Sentence 3–Her project fills the gap]. The question is discussed in relation to a patriotic poem, Palashir Yuddha (1875), accused of ahistoricality, as well as to a defense made by Bengal’s first professional historian, Jadunath Sarkar, against a similar charge in the context of Bankimchandra Chatterjee’s historical novels [Sentence 4–Her specific material in the paper]. That the relationship of creativity to history is a continuing preoccupation for the historian is finally explored through Ranajit Guha’s invocation of Tagore in “History at the Limit of World-History” (2002) [Sentence 5–Her argument, weakly stated]. [MISSING Sentence 6—a strong conclusion].
[History in Poetry: Nabinchandra Sen’s “Palashir Yuddha” and the Question of Truth. Rosinka Chaudhuri. The Journal of Asian Studies. Vol. 66, No. 4 (Nov., 2007) (pp. 897-918)]
al Quds - Yesterday and Today
Jerusalem, known in Arabic as Al Quds, or Holy Sanctuary is one of the oldest and most contested
cities on earth. Built 5,000 years ago, it has been demolished and rebuilt 18 times, is home to dozens
of civilizations and languages, in 37 different eras, and survivor of several occupations and
aggressions.
From time immemorial, Jerusalem has been diverse and cosmopolitan, one of the few cities in the
world where crescents cling to crosses in harmony. Today’s Palestinians represent the mosaic of that
past, and the history and the spirit of their city are evidence of the survival of the Arab character of
Jerusalem against all colonizers.
It was founded between 3000 BCE and 2600 BCE by a West Semitic people, possibly the Canaanites,
the common ancestors of Palestinians, Lebanese, many Syrians and Jordanians, and many Jews. But
when it was founded Jews did not exist. The city was unknown to the Jews for at least a thousand
years. After Jews were uprooted and expelled by Emperor Hadrian in 136 CE, they had no historical
presence or memorable activity in the city for 18 centuries.
When Muslim Arabs conquered Jerusalem under Caliph ‘Umar, it had not seen a Jewish presence in
over five centuries 1
After the crusades ended with Salahuddin Ayyubi capturing Jerusalem in 1187, the city continued
under Ottoman Islamic rule until 1917, when British occupation facilitated Zionist immigration and
colonisation.
Jews gained strength through informal terrorist outfits like Haganah and Irgun. Immediately after the
World War II, they started a guerilla war against the British. Who then referred the issue to the UN
which recommended the partition of Palestine, giving 56 percent to the 23 percent Zionists who
owned only 6 percent of its private land), 42 percent to the 77 percent Arabs who had lived and called
100% of Palestine their home (Jerusalem was earmarked for an international regime). In 1948, Zionist
militia managed to occupy western Jerusalem and expel Palestinians from it through mass killings and
massacres like the one at Deir Yassin.
After the war of 1948, an armistice agreement between Jordan and Israel divided Jerusalem into
eastern and western parts. The eastern part included AlAqsa compound and the Old City.
1
(Zaza, p.38).
Israel completed its occupation of Jerusalem during the 1967 war. Soon after the war ended, Israel’s
government announced the unification of East and West Jerusalem as Israel’s “eternal capital,” in
clear disregard of the international law and the Fourth Geneva Convention, an action the Security
Council condemned through resolution number 487 in 1980 declaring the Israeli declaration and all its
consequences illegal, but Israel ignored it.
Under international law, East Jerusalem is occupied territory, as are the parts of the West Bank that
Israel unilaterally annexed to its district of “New Jerusalem”. The Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949
and the Hague Regulations of 1907 forbid occupying powers to alter the lifeways of occupied
civilians, and forbid the settling of people from the occupiers' country in the occupied territory.
Israel's expulsion of Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem, its usurpation of Palestinian
property there, and its settling of Israelis on Palestinian land are all gross violations of international
law. Israeli claims that they are not occupying Palestinians because the Palestinians have no state are
cruel and tautological.
The United Nations resolutions adopted since 1967, acknowledging the rights of Palestinians to East
Jerusalem and calling upon the Israeli government to stop altering the character and demographics of
the city have fallen on deaf ears, and the United Nations has no practical means or intention to enforce
them.
The burning of the alAqsa mosque in 1969, the 1991 massacre in its holy precincts, the bloody events
of the 1996 opening of the tunnel under the Haram Al Sharif compound, and the September 2000
storming of the Al Aqsa compound by Ariel Sharon which sparked the second intifada attest to the
dark history of Israeli provocations.
At the heart of Jerusalem stands the Haram Al Sharif of alAqsa, comprising more than 35 acres of
fountains, gardens, buildings and domes, including the famous golden Dome of the Rock. The entire
compound, conventionally referred to as alAqsa, constitutes nearly onesixth of the walled city.
Jews are drawn to the site to worship at the Western Wall, next to the Haram alSharif, and
traditionally considered the holiest site in Judaism and the location of a future temple. The wall is the
only remnant of the Jewish temple destroyed by Herod in AD 70.
Whenever Jewish extremists, under the guise of prophecy (on selected dates according to the lunar
calendar), plan to to storm alAqsa compound and build their Temple there, Palestinians gather to
protect their holy site.
When thousands of Jews converged on occupied Jerusalem last weekend to mark what they believed
to be the destruction of the Second Temple by the Romans, Israel’s Deputy Defence Minister Eli
Dahan confirmed their intention: “We are here to announce that we’ve returned to Jerusalem and that
we’re preparing our hearts to return to the Temple Mount and rebuild the Temple.” As a warning, he
added, “We’re not ashamed of this: we want to build the Third Temple on the Temple Mount.”
Dahan’s remarks were not the rant of a lunatic fringe. They were a reflection of the prevailing view
within the Israeli political establishment; that the Temple is central to the Jewish people without
which they cannot exist. To them, AlAqsa Mosque is an inconvenient obstacle in the way of their
enterprise.
The late rabbi Meir Kahane, who founded and led the terrorist Kach movement, claimed that Israel’s
biggest mistake was that it did not destroy AlAqsa in 1967 when Jerusalem was occupied during the
SixDay War. Thus, for all intents and purposes, the issue is now simply one of unfinished business.
But the extremist groups do not constitute a threat only to alAqsa. Official Israeli statements and
actions concerning the Haram Al Sharif are intended to isolate Palestinians and their cause, removing
it from its real historical, political and human rights context. Looking at it from a purely religious
perspective deflects attention from Israel’s continuing settlement expansion, and is used by Zionists as
a test balloon to probe Arab and Muslim reactions to accepting another theft of a Muslim and
Christian holy site.
In order to strengthen its Jewish character and to ensure future expansion of Jewish localities and
settlements, more areas were added to Jerusalem’s municipal limits in 1995 out of West Bank as well
as from Israel beyond the socalled Green Line.
Israel started hectic settlement activity in the new limits of Jerusalem, unleashing a policy of
exclusion and expulsion of Jerusalem’s Arab residents.
Contrary to the claims of the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli governments have
not in fact been united or consistent about israeli policy on East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin gave undertakings as part of the Oslo Peace Process to withdraw from
Palestinian territory and grant Palestinians a state, promises for which he was assassinated by the
Israeli far right (elements of which now support Netanyahu's government). As late as 2000, the then
Prime Minister Ehud Barak claims he gave oral assurances that Palestinians could have almost all of
the West Bank and through some arrangement could have East Jerusalem as its capital.
Ever since its occupation in 1967, Israel has tried through a number of measures, to integrate eastern
Jerusalem into Israel, by seizing private Arab lands and properties, expelling Arab citizens and
settling as many Jews as possible in the Holy City and its immediate environs. Israeli authorities have
tried to seize Arabowned properties by declaring them as evacuee/absentee or neglected properties
which could be acquired on one hand or by denying Arabs permits to build or use their properties, on
the other. To achieve this, Israel revived the Land Acquisition Law issued by the British in 1943
which allows acquisition of private land “for public purpose. Using this “law,” Israel acquired 23,500
dunam Palestinian land during 19671996 alone. It bulldozed Arab localities adjacent to Western Wall
like the Moroccan Quarter which existed since the days of Salahuddin, the hasty destruction left 1,000
Palestinians homeless. 2
Israeli efforts to change the demography of Eastern Jerusalem may be gauged from the fact that
189,708 Jewish settlers moved there by 2007 (Statistical Book for Jerusalem 20022007).
To expedite the landgrabbing, Israeli authorities have also revived an old Ottoman law which states
that ownership of an agricultural land will revert to the State if it is not tilled for a continuous three
years while it is the Israeli occupation force which does not allow Palestinian farmers access to their
lands. The latest example is the apartheid wall erected by Israel, following a policy of Judaization,
displacement and ethnic cleansing in West Bank where vast chunks of lands fall to the west of the
wall to which Palestinians have no access. These lands, eaten up by the wall, have been in effect
acquired without paying any compensation to their owners. The main purpose of the wall is to cut off
East Jerusalem from its natural commercial and social interaction, dismantling the social fabric which
evolved over hundreds of years.
Israel also limits Arab presence in East Jerusalem through mass destruction of homes on a number of
pretexts like punishment for resistance activity, administrative demolition and military requirements.
Figures for the period between 19942006 show that during this period alone Israel issued more than
ten thousand demolition orders in East Jerusalem alone though not all of them were carried out.
According to a 2005 study, Israel confiscated 43.5 percent of the lands of East Jerusalem for Jewish
settlements, while designating 41 percent lands as “green land” where construction is illegal. In
2
(aljazeera.net study on Jerusalem “AlQuds Hikayat Madinah Muhtallah”:
http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D2BF5E4F207842E897B3841122FB000F.htm).
addition to this, Israel has earmarked 3.4 percent of East Jerusalem lands for military and
infrastructure purposes. The PLO study further said that these figures are still not final because the
Israeli occupation authorities confiscated all Palestinian land records when they closed down the
Orient House in 2001 which functioned as a de facto Palestinian administration in East Jerusalem.
UN Security Council resolution 298 in 1971 resolved that acquisition of land by force is illegal and it
asked Israel to cancel all its actions in this regard.
While Islamic and Christian facts dot every inch of the holy city, Jews have only one physical
historical evidence to support their claim to the city, the “Wailing Wall” better known as the Western
Wall of the Aqsa Mosque or the Buraq Wall. An international commission appointed by the League of
Nations in 1929 had categorically affirmed that the Western Wall is a part of the Aqsa Mosque and a
property of Muslims alone and that Jews have only the right of access, without the right to introduce
anything new at the site. Zionist interference at the site has been a continuous source of friction and
controversy.
Christian sites too have suffered Zionist intrusion; Israel has refused to hand over Room of the Last
Supper on Mount Zion to the Vatican, claiming it to be the grave of King David.
In another act of erasure, Israel labels the Aqsa Mosque as the "Temple Mount," a term that has been
mainstreamed even in Western discourse, thus, offering legitimacy to the Jewish narrative and claims
alternative to Islam’s third holiest site, never mind the fact that the actual site of the first and second
temples are disputed.
The greatest changes have been introduced underground, where Israelis started extensive excavations
under the Aqsa Mosque complex and its vicinity, searching for archeological artifacts to support their
claim on the holy city in general and the site of Aqsa, in particular. The heart of the conflict lies in the
Zionist claim that the remains of their alleged Haykal, their Temple of Solomon, exist underneath
AlHaram AlSharif compound.
Occasional reports have confirmed that extensive tunnels and a number of underground synagogues
have been constructed beneath the alAqsa mosque. The excavations are feared to have compromised
the complex’s foundations and any quake or blast could be enough to pull down the whole structure.
Israel’s drilling activities, demolition of buildings and historical Arab and Islamic sites in the Old
City, the construction of Jewishonly structures on stolen Palestinian land, all demonstrate its utter
disregard for the interests of non-Jews in the holy land or the international opinion expressed through
the UN and other forums.
While foreign tourists and Jewish migrants are “finding oxygen” in Jerusalem, its indigenous residents
are being suffocated by institutionalized racist, apartheid and discriminatory policies aimed at
emptying Jerusalem of its non-Jewish population in violation of international humanitarian law, and
principles of the International Bill of Human Rights.
Israel routinely raids neighborhoods and civilian facilities, closes down Palestinian institutions and
racially discriminates against teachers and students. It has also run a campaign of arrests of citizens,
minors and public officials, rendering them unable to exercise their right and duty of democratic
representation of their constituents, in accordance with international humanitarian law.
Interfering with freedom of worship, Israel only allows those over the age of 60 to pray at the al Aqsa
mosque. The restriction on freedom of movement highlights the extent of erosion of Palestinian
control over Jerusalem in five decades of occupation.
Their inspiration seems to be Zionist ideologue Theodore Herzl, who said, in the first Zionist
conference in Basel in 1897, "If I ever control Jerusalem, I will definitely remove all the holy places
except the Jewish ones"
Draconian Israeli policies target the Palestinian residents of Jerusalem, suffocate the natives, through
arrest campaigns, in contravention of international humanitarian law, particularly the Fourth Geneva
Convention, and the principles of the International Bill of Human Rights, and Article 9 of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
Palestinians have no freedom of movement and residence in any part of the occupied Palestinian
territory, including Jerusalem, while the world looks on.
Thursday 8 September 2016
West Asian Economy news september 1/n
September 7, 2016 at 11:21 am | Published in: Israel, Middle East, News, Palestine
houses and buildings destroyed by Israeli airstrikesFile photo of houses and buildings destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
September 7, 2016 at 11:21 am
116
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Israeli policies hindering the movement of goods in and out of the Gaza Strip are destroying what’s left of Gaza’s economy, Quds Press reported the Palestinian Businessmen’s Association warning on Monday.
In a statement, the head of the association Ali Al-Hayik said: “The Israeli side causes much and consecutive losses for Gaza’s businessmen and traders to the point that negatively affects the already dilapidated economy due to the ten-year-old siege.”
The Israeli occupation “paralyses” the commercial cycle by blocking goods or returning them to Israeli seaports.
1509 travel permits of businessmen in Gaza have been revoked by the Israeli authorities.
“This causes many losses because the traders are obliged to pay a lot of money to store their goods in Israeli facilities,” he said. “Sometimes, the goods are allowed to enter Gaza after their expiry dates.”
Al-Hayik reiterated that the Israeli occupation policies have contributed to a dramatic decline in the productivity of Gaza’s economy, including the industrial, commercial and service sectors, noting that this increases unemployment rates and poverty.
He added that the Israeli occupation authorities arrest Gaza businessmen or revoke their travel permits when they pass through the Erez crossing, noting that 1,509 permits had been revoked since the start of 2016 and 20 businessmen were arrested, 15 were later released and five are still being held.
The Kerem Shalom commercial crossing in the south of the Gaza Strip is not operating full time or with full capacity and this causes delays in the entry of goods, Al-Hayik explained.
The Egyptian president is damned if he follows the fund's economic recommendations - and doomed if he doesn't
Memory, when it comes to events of magnitude, is rarely hazy. The January 1977 Bread Riots are such a memory marker.
In the mind of a 10-year-old child, there was unknown danger in the air reflected by a smoky Cairo sky after violent clashes. For this child, the Bread Riots, as they would become known, were simply a moment in time when his father disappeared at work for three straight days as a journalist for MENA, the government-run news agency.
For the rest of the world, the “riots" were a thunderous "No" from an Egyptian street, signed in the blood of 80 dead, to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-dictated, Sadat-approved economic policies. It was a fatal error in judgement that, some believe, may have led to the president’s assassination four years later.
Fast forward 39 years: the child has grown up, Sisi has replaced Sadat and his administration faces life and death choices as another limbo looms between the regime, the people and the IMF.
Just like Sadat before him, Sisi is damned if he does and doomed if he doesn’t. When shrink or sink are your options, you are doing something wrong.
Silent killers
Why is the economy on a cliff’s edge? Start with youth unemployment which has shot up from 29.2 percent in 1991 to 42 percent in 2014 and rising, according to the World Bank. Those figures are nothing short of a subterranean societal bomb.
Economic growth has been "uneven" leading to a staggering official figure of a quarter of Egyptians now living below the poverty line – in other words, living on $1.90 or less each day.
Mix in a hard currency crisis that has seen the dollar outflank the Egyptian pound to the tune of 13 to one in the parallel markets. Inflation, meanwhile, has reached a seven-year high of 14 percent - nothing less than a silent killer.
External debt, which continues to eat away at Egypt’s foreign currency reserves that are down to a dangerous $15bn as of July, has risen during Sisi’s rule from $44.8bn in July 2014 to $53.4bn in January 2016.
At the helm, Sisi recognises the danger and recently said "the country’s future is at stake". Egypt’s top executive is correct, on this occasion.
As of October 2015, alarms began to ring loudly, but few heard.
"The current government will end in the worst economic disaster,” warned Fatema El Asyouty, an Egyptian economic analyst and researcher.
"Rise of the dollar, expanding external debt, unemployment, and unbearably high prices will not be tolerated by people,” she explained.
Indeed. What Egypt has experienced since is exactly what El Asyouty forecast and regime popularity has plummeted. Now the move towards the IMF loan is seen as a necessary course correction but, simultaneously, reflects a desperation that runs counter to a historically contentious IMF-Egypt duality.
Only the potential implosion of the Egyptian economy could drive Sisi into the waiting arms of the IMF. After all, the fund is a complex political economic entity that, while shunning independent regulation of its activities, has cost many a ruler political capital and, sometimes, their very political lives.
But there are two sides to every story and we must examine both the pros and cons on the role of the fund.
The cure?
Naturally, the IMF views itself as an international helping hand. "Cooperation and reconstruction" are the primary roles of the fund as it sees it.
The organisation’s mantle has spanned five periods: the post-World War II, Bretton Woods era of fixed exchange rates; the debt reforms of the 1980s; the restructuring of East European markets post-Soviet Union collapse; and, finally, the current globalisation.
Despite its vision of itself, the IMF can be a nightmare masquerading as a dream. Repeatedly, the men dressed in expensive suits come knocking on the doors of developing nations with the necktie of neoliberal policies.
But with belt-tightening and reshaping of the economic landscape the name of the IMF’s game, it’s a necktie that chokes rather than adorns. Desperate to recoup losses, however, nation states play its deadly game and frequently wind up in even deeper debt.
Sinisterly, these neoliberal policies often aid the debtor nation's elite while tightening the noose around the lower classes. “In many cases, the recipients are worse off today…than before IMF loans began to flow,” as Ana Eiras, senior policy analyst with the Centre for Trade and Economics, points out.
The IMF’s formulaic structural adjustment policies (SAPs) often seek a devaluation of the country’s currency, an instrument already at play in Egypt. The policies intend to bring foreign investors to the table while decreasing export costs, buttressed by the privatisation of national assets.
But some argue that similar tactics undertaken during Sadat’s Infitah (open door) economic policies of the 1970s helped set off the Bread Riots and still cost Egyptians to this day.
In fact, as well-known lawyer and political figure Khaled Ali explained, "Privatisation has seen the dismantling of Egypt’s industrial structure." Much of this damage was done during the Mubarak era. But Mubarak was a highly strategic political player, using a subtle approach. By contrast Sisi’s regime, with neophyte economic advisors who appear to need their own advisors, has and will do major damage within the neoliberal IMF schemata.
Popular dissent
These mechanisms, while deemed necessary by some, are nowhere near as lethal to the regime as the politically explosive removal of the all-important subsidies for a nation that has an official poverty rate of 27.8 percent.
When a nation has over 24 million people living below the poverty line, subsidies are not an economic luxury but a must to keep revolutions at bay. Just like clockwork, demonstrations erupted this past Thursday, mostly by angry mothers demanding children’s formula that they now have difficulty finding in the shops or, when they do find it, find it has doubled in price after the removal of subsidies linked to the proposed fund deal.
In addition to a dearth of hard currency, the industrial wheel has shrunk to tricycle-size as a result of limited foreign investment. Meanwhile Egyptian economic growth, which recovered in 2015 to hit 4.2 percent, is projected to fall to 3.3 percent this year. With the economy teetering and more than $20bn of Gulf aid down the Sisi pipe dream, the nation is in the dreaded vice-like grip of the IMF.
A structural adjustment programme, which is attached to the $12bn IMF loan package, will require that Sisi does what analysts have described as "poor nations lower the living standard of their people". Without the IMF lifeline Sisi may sink.
But with it, Egyptians could suffer the double whammy of skyrocketing inflation and severe price hikes should the projected currency devaluation take place. Most people don’t realise that the projected IMF billions would likely go towards stabilising the disastrous currency market in investor confidence-building measures.
But who is going to trust a Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) that has been bumbling for many months under the unsteady leadership of Tareq Amer? If Egypt’s pro-government parliamentarians recently described Amer as the source of the dollar crisis, how can he be trusted to manage the IMF-prescribed Egyptian pound devaluation?
Many believe Sisi’s ears are open only to "a narrow circle of tycoons". There is little hope, in such a climate, that an IMF package will do anything but increase poverty, foreign debt and potentially throw Egypt into the clutches of veiled economic colonialism.
Explosive combo
There are some who hold out hope that the IMF-Egypt tango will not sink the ship. While acknowledging a "rocky" pairing, Mohamed El Arian, a leading economist and chairman of Obama’s Global Development Council, believes that the IMF package includes potentially sufficient safeguards.
The deal, he argues, "promotes fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate measures aimed at containing financial imbalances…and promotes the strengthening of social welfare programs".
However, even a hopeful analysis of the deal’s potential acknowledges the accusations levelled by critics that say the structural premise of the IMF’s aid packages promote poverty rather than economic health.
Moreover, while reasoned in his argument, Arian neglects to mention that while focusing on safety nets, the fund’s programme does not account for rampant corruption which consistently undermines the most well-intentioned social programmes.
A dictator with a track record of spending untold billions on self-aggrandising projects and a Western economic colossus whose solutions are "one size shrinks all economies" are the short cut to another explosion.
Tunisia has lost more than $2bn to corruption
September 7, 2016 at 1:24 pm | Published in: Africa, News, Tunisia
money-laundering-cash-hanging[File photo]
September 7, 2016 at 1:24 pm
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More than $2 billion has been lost from Tunisian coffers since former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in 2011.
A report by the Global Financial Integrity organisation (GFI) highlighted the severity of the loss as $181 per capita and said corruption was the main cause of Tunisia’s tepid economy.
Public expectations of economic reforms and solutions to social grievances since Ben Ali’s ousting have been met with futile efforts that have instead worsened the economy’s standing and created an opening for corruption to thrive. The government’s struggle to revive the economy and raise the necessary funds for investments is often curtailed by deep rooted of corruption.
According to the GFI report, the newly formed government must give “urgent attention to illicit financial flows if they are to achieve a model of sustainable economic growth”.
In his first public address, recently appointed Prime Minister Youssef Chahed said the fight against corruption would be one of the government’s first priorities stating the success of the newly formed government will largely depend on its efforts against nepotism and corruption. He called on the public to “denounce and resist” corruption by calling out those implicit in it.
Recently, Donald Trump said he admires Saddam Husain, the late president of Iraq who was judicially lynched by the successor Shiite government of Iraq during the American occupation of the country. People were aghast at his comment. He also said he sees no reason for America to be an eternal enemy of Russia and that even if the USA does not like Russia it should cooperate with Russia to defeat ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and that the USA fought along with the brutal dictator Joseph Stalin during the Second World War to defeat the axis powers of Japan and Germany. One may disagree violently with Trump on almost everything but in the instances cited, I can see some sense in his usual madness. I am convinced that the likes of Saddam Husain maintained some kind of peace in the Middle East in spite of the brutality of his regime. Even though he came from the minority Sunni population and treated all opposition Shiite or Sunni with brutality, he ensured that there was peace which was what the generally apolitical ordinary people of Iraq wanted. The mistake people in the West made was wanting to graft democracy on a traditionally autocratic conservative Arab environment.
When people in the West were hailing the so-called Arab Spring, I had the sneaky feeling that things will not turn out well. This was when I listened to the ambassador of Syria to the UN sometimes in 2010 at the plenary of the UN General Assembly pleading for understanding of his country’s problem. He had argued that Syria was a delicately balanced country of Alawites, (Shiite) Sunnis, Christians, Kurds, Armenians and Aramaics and that backing Sunnis who want to overthrow the Bashar-al-Asad regime would bring all sorts of external forces and complications which will not augur well for the future of Syria and the Middle East. After more than a decade of warfare and a whole country with an old civilization destroyed, there has neither been democracy nor peace in Syria rather a murderous group calling itself a caliphate has emerged bridging the frontiers of Iraq and Syria and imposing its draconian rule and will on a helpless and hapless people leading to the largest migration of a destabilizing horde of people since the end of the Second World War. But for the tenacity of the Sharifian dynasty in Morocco and the FLN government led by the old and infirm Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria who were able to resist the forces of the dissidents particularly FIS (Front Islamique de Salut) the so-called Arab Spring would have engulfed the whole of the Maghreb. The situation in Libya was unfortunately not the same for several reasons. NATO wanted Muamar al Ghadafi to be removed from power because of what was considered as his dangerous ambitions in the past especially wanting to develop nuclear and chemical weapons on the other side of the Mediterranean which Europe considers a European lake. Even though he had given up the ambition, he was never trusted. So when the occasion for his removal presented itself, NATO was not going to allow it to slip from its hand. Their forces instigated a local rebellion which it joined to murder without trial an incumbent head of State. But what has replaced the years of stability in Libya is chaos and the takeover of part of the country by forces pledging allegiance to the Caliphate. The situation in Libya is like the case of Humpty Dumpty and everybody is waiting for which forces will secure the vast country of Libya. Whatever anybody may say about Ghadafi, he secured the country for decades after the overthrow of King Idris al-Sannusi. Egypt is back in the hands of the military after the initial hoopla of getting rid of President Mubarak. He was replaced by Mohammad Morsi for about a year before he was overthrown by General Muhammad -al-Sisi. It appears that the Egyptians would rather have stability than some wooly democracy or chaotic rule by the Islamic Brotherhood of Morsi. The effendiyyah in Egypt is just too sophisticated for that. It is only in Tunisia where the Arab Spring has brought in some form of constitutional regime albeit under an 82 year old president! Yemen is in turmoil and the Saudi army is there fighting a proxy war with Iran that is backing the Houthis who are Shiites. Oman and the other Gulf States including Saudi Arabia are maintaining some precarious peace with their Shiite subjects cowed down by overwhelming Sunni forces. Iran continues to pose existential challenge to the gulf Arab states and even far afield to Sunni domination or threatened domination in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Egypt which could have provided Sunni counterweight to Iran is held down by a collapsed economy and terrorist challenge in the Sinai. The chaos in North Africa and he Middle East has reverberation in Africa where the Al Qaida in the Maghreb and West Africa, Boko haram in Nigeria, Niger and the Cameroon and al Shabbab in Somalia and Kenya constitute variants of the same Middle East Islamic terrorism. The direct effect of this is the proliferation of weapons of precision that are fueling insurgency all over Africa.
One common denominator to the Middle East and Africa is their sit-tight presidents in Museveni’s Uganda, Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, Bashar’s Sudan, Paul Kagame’s Rwanda and other dictators in the inter-lacustrine state of Burundi as well as virtually all the Francophone states of the two Congos, Central African Republic and the Spanish-speaking Equatorial Guinea. Even the new state of Southern Sudan is torn by ethnic war because of the sit tight syndrome. While this goes on, there is neither growth nor development of the economy. On top of this is the rising population of young people who have no hope of employment. Even countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and Tanzania to mention a few are also afflicted by unimpressive economic performance and joblessness of their ballooning youthful population. This a time bomb in both Africa and the Middle East. The situation is so bad that young people are ready to die crossing to Europe by leaky dinghies and boats across the Mediterranean Sea.
What is to be done? It seems to me that Africa has largely accepted that the democratic way is the way forward. There may be debate about what style of democracy. It is obvious that the western model may have to be modified to suit the peculiar condition of each African state. This is not the same as supporting any bastardized democratic contraption called home-grown democracy which is a euphemism for dictatorship. The market driven economic prescriptions of the West may not work because of paucity of foreign and local investors. The state would have to intervene through direct investment by state corporations side by side with private investors like it happened in South Korea. The enforced orthodoxy of market economy will have to give way to practical solution that would also generate employment for the teeming masses of the people.
But as for the Middle East and North Africa, democracy may not work there for long time to come. The Middle East will only survive if a way is found to satisfy its young people who are suffering from unemployment. This problem would worsen with the decline in the price of gas and oil which will make it impossible for the gulf countries to continue to bribe young people with generous perks because sooner or later they will run out of cash. The future of the almost 350million Arabs is uncertain unless realistic solution is found to the economic and political conditions of those countries There will also have to be a reconciliation between Iran and the Arab states as well as between Sunni and Shiite sectarian traditions in Islam. Finally the question of war and peace with Israel must be resolved by accepting the existence of two states, Israel and Palestine, in old Palestine. Inability to solve this problem may drive Arab youth to extremist tendencies which would not augur well for peace in the Middle East an absence of which could pose a threat to global peace.
Although the growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the outset of this year did not fare as well as initial expectations, speculations that an oil deal could be struck at the informal Opec Organisation meeting in September have reinvigorated oil markets and alleviated fears about a severe economic crunch in the region.
Furthermore, after the implementation of harsh fiscal consolidation processes, the economic sentiment improved amid signs that some of the economies which were worst hit by the fall in oil prices in the last two years have started to stabilise.
Nevertheless, the region remains vulnerable to geopolitical risks and volatility in the oil markets. Against this backdrop, the September edition of the “Focus Economics Consensus Forecast Middle East & North Africa” kept the growth projections for the region stable at 2.3%. For 2017, growth in the region is expected to accelerate to 3%.
In its September forecast, Focus stated that Qatar and Iran are expected to be the best performers in 2016, while Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are expected to perform poorly, and Yemen as a result of the ongoing civil war is expected to be the worst performer.
On the other hand, Egypt and Israel are forecast to have the fastest growth among the rest of the MENA countries, with a projected GDP expansion of 3.1%, and 2.6% respectively.
Egypt’s economy still faces many conundrums, from shortages in US dollars to severe capital outflows and plummeting tourist numbers. As a result, the government plans to raise $21bn to fund an ambitious three-year programme in coordination with the International Monetary Fund.
Consequently, Egypt will commit to quick implementation of economic reforms, which will include the introduction of the value-added tax (VAT), which was recently approved by parliament, and further devaluation of the Egyptian pound.
Although the government’s programme could stabilise Egypt’s macroeconomic fundamentals, various factors will still negatively impact Egypt’s GDP: soaring inflation, a severe US dollar shortage, and a weak private sector. As a result, Focus Economics projects Egypt’s GDP to expand 3.1% for fiscal year (FY) 2016, and 3.6% for FY 2017.
Inflation reached a record level high in June at 14%, and continued into July, which is Egypt’s highest reading since early 2009. As a result, consumer prices are likely to increase as well. Focus Economics expects an average inflation of 11.8% for calendar year 2016, and 11.5% for 2017.
With regards to Egypt’s real estate sector, the Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded a notable decrease from 48.9% in July to 47% in August, which is considered the lowest reading in the past four months.
The deterioration in PMI value in August comes as a result of different factors: weak demand dynamics, US dollar shortages, and an increase in the price of raw materials.
“The August PMI figures underscore the urgency to initiate a wide-ranging economic reform programme. Most importantly, the survey data highlights the ongoing need to move to a more flexible exchange rate system in order to achieve a market-clearing rate for the Egyptian pound,” said Jean-Paul Pigat, senior economist at Emirates NBD.
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In February's elections, the mega-city of Tehran, which has 30 seats out of 290 in parliament, was one of a handful of cities where the number of moderate/reformist candidates who were vetted by the Guardian Council and were allowed to run was more than the number of seats – giving voters a greater choice of candidates. Tellingly, voters in the capital prevented the conservatives from gaining even one seat out of 30.
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The forecast said recovery is expected in the 2017-18 fiscal year. "The UAE has been more proactive in terms of economic diversification than other GCC states and is, therefore, expected to cope relatively well with a prolonged period of low oil prices and to be one of the Gulf's best-performing economies in the coming years."
Despite low oil prices, the UAE's economy held up well last year with GDP growth picking up to 3.8 per cent from 3.1 per cent in 2014 - helped by strong growth in the oil sector, it said. The non-oil economy, on the other hand, recorded its weakest growth in five years. "This was largely due to fiscal tightening - fuel prices were deregulated last year and electricity and fuel prices were hiked, while Abu Dhabi cut spending by 20 per cent," it said.
The report noted that as fiscal tightening continues throughout 2016 and the boost from oil falls, growth will fall to two per cent by the end of the year, compounded by the fact that Dubai in particular is highly exposed to weak economic growth across the rest of the Gulf.
According to Capital Economics' Q2 2016 Middle East Outlook, the average GDP growth for countries in the region will be just 1.3 per cent. But institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Institute of Finance, have predicted the UAE can expect growth of up to three per cent.
The IMF said in a note recently that the growth of UAE's non-oil sector is expected to increase above four per cent in the medium term, thanks to recovery in oil price, pick-up in private investment in the run-up to the Expo 2020 and a host of other factors.
"Economic activity is expected to moderate further in 2016, before improving over the medium term. Over the medium-term, non-hydrocarbon growth is forecast to increase to above four per cent as the dampening effect of fiscal consolidation is offset by improvements in economic sentiment and financial conditions as oil prices rise, a pick-up in private investment in the run-up to the Expo 2020 and stronger external demand," the IMF executive board said in an assessment note of the country's economy.
Executive directors welcomed the UAE's resilience to the oil price shock. Directors commended the authorities for prudent policies which helped build large fiscal and external buffers and strengthened the economy.
The IMF said persistent lower oil prices continue to pose challenges. Directors underscored the need for sustained sound macroeconomic policies to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities, safeguard financial stability and promote long-term growth.
IMF directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to pursue fiscal consolidation. For the near-term, in light of the ample buffers, they generally considered a gradual adjustment effort to be appropriate in order to minimise the negative impact on growth. However, stronger fiscal consolidation will be needed over the medium term to ensure intergenerational equity.
The executive board of the IMF also called for the Emirates to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the new investment law and spur competition. Directors called for continued action to increase productivity and foster competitiveness.
"Efforts should continue to improve the business environment, ease restrictions on FDI in the new investment law and spur competition. In addition, priority should be given to upgrading the quality of education, promoting innovation and entrepreneurship, and facilitating SMEs' and start-ups' access to finance," the IMF said.